Market News

– After the confusion made by the US Department of Treasury on the latest status of Iranian Banks with regards to the SDN list and the secondary sanctions (being still connected to SWIFT), an analysis has been performed by Donya-e-Bank news agency showing the map of Iranian Banks in a picture. According to the below table, almost all banks in Iran is under the SDN list, however, the ones with no “Secondary Sanctions” tick on their status are clear to deal with:

– The second part of Iranian oil deal, supposed to be traded on Iran Energy Exchange, was carried out today at $64.97 per barrels. This trade had 3 buyers each placed orders for more than 200K barrels which led to a total figure of 700K. On aggregate, Iran sold 1 mn barrels of its crude on IRENEXwhich only remedies for a small part of the nations oil exports cuts after US sanctions snapback.

– Early anticipations of Iran 2019/20 budget plan show that the figure for oil exports, which had raised before the sanctions snapback to more than 2,400,000 barrels per day, is expected to be around only 1,200,000. Eyeing then fact that president Rouhani must seek alternatives to fill the revenue gap from this reduction, analysts believe that tax revenues have the potential to incline by only 5% contrary to 2018/19 budget bill. Moreover, there are controversies over the FX translation rate:

• Some experts suggest a rate of USD/IRR 42,000 for essential goods and a NIMA rate of 80,000 for the rest;
• Some talks about a free market rate of around 10,000 for the major part and a USD/IRR 50,000-55,000 for the nation’s most viable needs.

In the Market

Stocks ended today on a surprisingly lower note as the analysts believe that now only a stronger than expected fundamental change must happen in the market in order for any advances. TEDPIX (-1.93%) lost almost 3,600 points to stand slightly higher than the 180K level. IFEX (-1.68%) lost 33.51points to perform even worst and close below 2,000 level.

It seems that the post-sanctions situation got everyone by surprise and act as a wakeup call to all market participants. Now the market focus is mostly on the monthly performance reports of each component along with data of Imports/Exports from all the shipping ports. Agah analysis of the individual’s participation shows that the trend of cash withdrawal from the market has accelerated during the last two sessions and that should be a sign of warning as investors recall the fact that during the last rally, the great participation of retail investors helped mostly for their dreamy profits.

Source:

2018, Iranian Banks sanctions status analyzed!, Sunday, Nov 11, p.1,<https://agahgroup.com>