Market News

– Following the recent hikes in USD/IRR and eyeing the future of global gold price, the options trades on Iranian gold coin future contracts took a pick on the very first days of the new year. More than 113,191 option contracts worth IRR 21,671 bn (cUSD 473.8 mn) have been sold during the first 3 days of 1397 (2018/19). The spot price of “Bahar Azadi” coins reached IRR +17,000,000 level amid yesterdays’ trade which offers a risk-free arbitrage opportunity of 26.58% profit in six months. CBI recently auctioned pre-sale of gold coins in 6 months and 1-year maturities at IRR 14,000,000 and IRR 15,000,00 levels. Paired with “short position”, an annual yield of 43.31% is not far-fetched. The below table demonstrates the details:

Source: Agah Group Analysis Team

– From the first entrance of Iranian Sukuk in the capital market, a figure of IRR 247,000 bn (cUSD 5 bn) securities has been issued over 53 titles on Iran debt market. 19 issues, worth IRR 17,000 bn (cUSD 343 mn) have been matured until today and the rest is considered as outstanding and are open to trade. According to official stats, the volume of issues raised by 58% in 1396 (2017/18) contrary to the previous year 1395 (2016/17).

USD/IRR concerns drive TSE fallout!

In the Market

The stock market closed the day on a decidedly lower note, falling victim to fears about the future of USD/IRR and the Ministry of Industry and Mining decision to price the basic metals at the official FX rate. The TEDPIX and IFEX  each 0.45% and -1.0 respectively.

What rattled the stock market today was the feistier-sounding nature of administration officials on the unleashed foreign currency market. Wity no official comments yet, the participants are confused about the future of IRR.

Today’s negative rally majorly led by the unfortunate Metals sector (-0.53%). After the sudden announcement by the Ministry to change the basics of IME pricing, almost all the industry tickers responded badly to the news. Isfahan Mubaraka Steel (FOLD1, -1.41%) stamped the worst negative effect on the overall index by more 77 points solely.

On the flip side, the IT sector (0.51%) showed relative strength today with its mega-cap Informatics Services (INFO1, +2.6) ended the day with a buy queue. Other names traded on a balanced to negative note, however, considering the relative size of companies, they could not drag the sector in red.

Source:

2018, Iranian gold coin future; a +25% arbitrage opportunity!, Sunday, April 8, p.1,<https://agahgroup.com>