Market News

– Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, announced that the Europe Union is going to circle Iran sanctions utilizing a new mechanism consisting 7 different European central banks. This EUR only transactions account will be used for the settlement of Iran trades without any involvement from united states or US dollars. Other news reports from Federica Mogherini that this new scheme will be into effect no later than November 01, 2018. 

– The central bank of Iran announced the point-to-point inflation figure 13.5% for the month Shahrivar (Aug-Sep 2018). Customer Price Index (CPI – based on the fix prices of 1390) for the mentioned period reached 141.90 which registered a rise of 6.1%, the highest number of monthly growth ever in the history of the Iranian economy since 2008. The below image shows the monthly inflation figures for the last 10 years:

– In a report carried out by Agah Group, the 1-year performance of top listed tickers (on TSE and IFB) has been analyzed. Data shows 15 shares of the capital market had a return of +200% during the mentioned period. It shall be noted that the USD/IRR rate jumped for 323% from Sep 26, 2017, to Sep 26, 2018. The below table demonstrates the details:

In the Market

Tehran Stock Exchange finished today a lot changed, securing big gains for the 15th consecutive sessions. The TEDPIX (+3.53%) closed far above its flatline on a new all-time record high of 186,979.02. Showing no regrets, the IFEX (+3.62%) jumped meteorically again to 2,149, left +75 positive points behind. It seems major indices have no decisions to sit back and are breaking all their technical resistant levels.

The injection of fresh money into the market still continues with an even stronger pace than before. Analyses show that a figure of IRR 4,000 bn (USD 95.25 mn – USD/IRR 42,000) has been entered to the market during the last two trading sessions (each day) and today’s numbers were, in fact, the same.

Today’s super bullish rally had no exclusive winner as almost all the listed sectors made advancements between +2.0% to +7.0%. However, the heavy-weighted Chemicals (+4.90%) sector was on top again with its giant, Persian Gulf Petrochemicals (PKLJ, +4.72%) broke its previous historical price cap and closed just a tick shy of IRR 10,000 per share. Today’s surprise must be named after Ghadir Petrochemical Co. (PGHZ, +10.01%)which left 12 mn “purchase “orders in the queue after its re-opening due to more than 20% change over 5 consecutive session.

Oil Products (+6.82%) was also on the spotlight today as global crude prices jumped again to USD +83.0 per barrel. Literally, all the tickers in the sector ended the day in full range and even some experienced a +10% rise after re-opening. Isfahan Oil Refinery (PNES, +10.21%) made history today and changed hands for almost 13 mn shares in 402 trades. Tehran (PTEH, +7.93%) and Bandar Abbas (PNBA, +4.99%) Oil Refinerieswere next in line.

In general, analysts are re-adjusting their previous technical predictions as retail investors’ cash flow purring into the market seems to never end anytime soon. Since the current situation is comparable to 2013/14 (the first time the US imposed heavy economic sanctions on Iran), some experts say that the USD adjusted M-Cap of the market has a wide gap to reach that level and overall index can easily jump to +300K level by the year-end.

Source:

2018, EU circles Iran sanctions using a “7 central banks” SPV!, Saturday, Sep 29, p.1,<https://agahgroup.com>