Market News

– The newest IMF predictions on Iran Economy suggest an economic growth of -1.5% and -3.6% for the current year and next respectively. This is while the figures for inflation have predicted to be around 29.6% and 34.1% for the same period. IMF tells that the US sanctions will grow the global crude prices higher in short-term, however, the OPEC overproduction along with the US shale oil in the market will reduce long-term anxieties.

– New reports by CBI on Iranian Banks‘ balance sheets show that the pace of “money supply” growth has finally taken a downturn and reduced slightly on the month of Shahrivar (Aug-Sep 2018). While a huge part of money supply growth was because of banks’ overdrafts during the first 5 months of 1397 (2018/19) topping IRR 1,360 bn (USD 32.38 mn – USD/IRR 42,000) per day, however, this figure for the mentioned period lowered as IRR 800 bn (USD 19.05 mn). 

Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad

– Rumours have that in a meeting held between the chair of CBI and the new minister of industries and mine, a new directive has been ratified easing the import/export FX translation process. Previously, all exports were obliged to bring their FX revenues to the NIMA platform which was considered as a barrier for SME exporters. Now it seems that the lawmaker is to change its attitude towards the nation’s FX revenues and loosen up the environment in a way that benefits all economy participants. The below chart shows the proposed idea:

In the Market

Stocks performed moderately higher in a shaky session as retail investors stayed mostly in cash for the next big IPO of Iran Fara Bourse this year scheduled for the next Saturday. TEDPIX (+0.55%) jumped slightly higher to stand one level higher on the 183K band while IFEX (+0.38%)rebounded on thin ice.

Agah analysis of individuals’ activity shows in spite of the fact that withdrawal trend stopped the other session, yet no fresh money has been injected into market still. A closer look at listed tickers tells that a U-turn is happening between Iran Capital Market industries. The not so much popular Auto (+0.77%) sector is now on investors radar as there are high posibilities of a price hike. Most of the sector’s components ended the day in good green, however, closing the end sale pressure felt more.

The anticipations of are FX regime, to be read on “Market News” section, for exports made small to mid-sized industries more interesting for market participants now mostly due to the fact that there will be no NIMA platform rate restrictions and export-based companies’ can translate their currency revenues on a free market FX rate. This could bring up these tickers profitability and urge them to seek new export routes in the age of sanctions.

Source:

2018, IMF predicts new figures for Iran Economy!, Monday, Nov 13, p.1,<https://agahgroup.com>