Iran Trade Balance turns positive as non-oil exports surges!
– After the first 8 months of 1397 (2018/19), the total non-oil exports surpassed USD 31.491 bn which made Iran Trade Balance positive for USD 2 bn. The figure is raised 12.96% in value contrary to the same period last year. Major exports of Iran were gas condensates (8.81%), liquid propane (4.25%) and other light oil products except for petroleum (3.5%). The top 5 export destinations of Iranian products are Iraq (21.46%), China (20.52%), UAE (16.17%), Afghanistan (7.13%) and India (4.99%).
– With anticipations of 2019/20 budget bill getting stronger, Agah Group analyzed the oil exports revenue part of the proposed bill. Following the implicit confirmation on a USD/IRR rate of 57,000 as the next year’s FX translation rate and being under the premise that Iran will export 1.2 mn barrels of crude per day @ USD 60 a barrel, after reducing deductibles from the nation’s oil revenues, share of Iranian government would stand around USD 16 bn which barely covers the imports of essential goods.
– With the ending of new Islamic Treasury Bills issues, for now, that side of Iran Debt Market gets more stable and now this market reflects the real risk-free rate in Iran economy. The YTMs of the outstanding issues were on a declining path, however, the recent falls of Tehran Stock Exchange pressured the ITBs and rates jumped. Below picture shows the latest status of Iran Islamic Treasury Bills:
In the Market
Equities responded positively to the global commodities come-back. Major indices raised moderately today on a session that heralds hope for the future of the capital market. TEDPIX (+1.94%) jumped for almost 3200 points to retake the previously lost 166K level. IFEX (+2.81%) performed even better as its commodity-based giants hiked after global prices.
Today’s better than expected performance was mostly indebted of heavy weighted Metals (+3.31%), Chemical (+1.75%) and mid-weighted Oil Products (+4.67%) sectors. Agah analyses of retail side participation, as told the other day, show that the long-lasting trend of cash withdrawal has ended finally and the other day’s trend turned positive.
Looking ahead, the proposed budget plan, pricing of automobiles, the future of banking interest rates and the short-term trend of FX rates are the factors with the most influence on the overall market situation.
2018, Iran Trade Balance turns positive as non-oil exports surges!, Monday, Dec 03, p.1,<https://agahgroup.com>